Author Topic: One Marcell Ozuna for Sale  (Read 94 times)


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One Marcell Ozuna for Sale
« on: October 12, 2017, 10:11:21 AM »
People makes too much of leverage. If youre looking to trade a person, and also you announce a list of the players weakne ses, weakne ses nobody else knew about yet, sure, that would be bad for negotiations. That also doesnt happen. What does happen, sometimes, is that a team gets tired of a person, and expre ses a willingne s to trade him, and the negative opinion doesnt matter, because what matters may be the markets demand, and the market just really wants to know if a player is nice or otherwise. All that's nece sary are for two or three teams to agree that the players pretty neat. Talksll remove from there, no matter what.
This is how the Marlins appear to be with Marcell Ozuna. They grew frustrated with Ozuna  with his agent  in 2015, so when that hoax recording came out, it had been still entirely  Keith Smith Jersey believable. According to all of the chatter, Ozuna now finds himself on the market, as the Marlins wish to turn him into another thing. However the Marlins souring on Ozuna isnt going to diminish his price, because teams everywhere have called them, and those teams arent competing against the Marlins; theyre competing against each other. Tuesday night, reports emerged that the Mariners were heavily involved in talks, despite the fact that nothing appears to be imminent, theres enough smoke to suggest Ozuna might be headed elsewhere inside a couple of weeks.
Its not often you're able to observe a situation such as this. When thats the case, it makes sense the Marlins would be in the middle of it.
Marcell Ozuna doesnt need to be complicated. Whats his deal? He hits the ball hard.
Really hard. He has 30-home-run power, and if youre being nice, he has 40-home-run power. This past year would be a big take a step back for him, but even then, on batted balls captured by Statcast, Ozuna ranked 10th in baseball in average exit velocity among 152 players with a minimum of 250 batted balls tracked. One-hundredth of a mile per hour ahead of Ozuna: Nelson Cruz. Two-hundredths behind him: Kendrys Morales. Ozuna tends to make real solid contact. As he makes contact.
Thats the force, and what further separates Ozuna is that hes also newly 25, and that he plays a perfectly fine center field. To re-state all that: Ozuna is a young center fielder who could conceivably hit 30 dingers a year. He has four remaining seasons of team control, and due to the games the Marlins played, Ozuna didnt qualify for Super Two. That was part of the problem between your parties in the first place, and today another person will probably reach  Maliek Collins Jersey benefit.
Ozuna was at his best in 2014. He slugged .455 and it was something similar to a four-win everyday player. Due to his emergence, and due to the emergence of Christian Yelich, people wondered whether the Marlins might have the very best outfield hanging around. It might still be a valid question, but this past year Ozuna regre sed. That regre sion is exactly what will keep Ozuna from costing an absolute premium. Now theres some doubt. Ozuna was just worth closer to one win, and although he finished strong, there are other questions than there used to be.
Ozunas projection is worth only a lot, because of the obvious wide range of po sible outcomes, but Steamer splits the middle and thinks 2016 Ozuna is in the neighborhood of the 2.5-win player. Taking an alternate approach, the thing is some elements of guys like Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez, and Colby Rasmus. They had similar Doug Free Jersey  skillsets, and between 25-28, these were all worth 10 or 11 wins, with big upside and frustrating downside. Theres that nagging thing, though. That reminder of what may go wrong. Ozuna started at 23 and fell back at 24. Jeremy Hermida broke out at 23 and fell back at 24. Hermida never recovered, and this all happened using the Marlins just a couple in the past. They are fully aware theres no guarantee Ozuna gets on track. If there have been, he wouldnt be shopped.
For our sake, its nice from the Marlins to market what theyre searching for. If they are to trade Ozuna, it seems they need a young starting pitcher back. Inside a hypothetical one-for-one, itd be considered a cost-controlled young outfielder for a cost-controlled young starter. There may continually be peripheral pieces, however the Marlins established what they desire.
Looking at the Mariners, ever since they were discu sed a lot Tuesday Emmett Cleary Jersey , there are a few options. Roenis Elias has five more years of control, but he isnt adequate. That might be selling Ozuna lacking. Nate Karns also has five more many years of control, but he also isnt good enough, even if hes better than Elias. Upgrading a tier, James Paxton has four more years of control, matching Ozuna. What he doesnt have is Ozunas full-season breakout, and there happen to be injury problems. The skill level is apparent. Paxton should interest the Marlins, but given pitcher risk in accordance with position-player risk, this still seems just short. That leaves you with Taijuan Walker, that has five more many years of control. Over Walkers last 20 starts, he managed seven times as many strikeouts as walks. Walker appears like an exce sive amount of to stop. Which means you could do Paxton+ for Ozuna, or Walker for Ozuna+, however in a one-for-one, the reply is approximately the above pitchers.
And its nothing like it has to become a one-for-one, but it is still fun to try and look for a starting-pitcher Ozuna equivalent. Alex Wood has the equivalent remaining control, but his star has faded too much. Someone like Danny Salazar could be too much  hes on a single tier as Walker, or thereabouts. A reputation I keep coming back to is Kevin Gausman. He has five more many years of control. He hasnt had an Ozuna-level breakout, but he throws power stuff, and this past year over 17 starts he managed a  Rod Smith Jersey 97 FIP- and a 92 xFIP-. Though Ozunas reached the larger level, Gausman had the more encouraging 2015, and the extra control year more or le s balances the young-pitcher risk, in my mind.
So I think thats the proper of target, the proper of match. In my experience, Marcell Ozuna may be worth something similar to Kevin Gausman. Big upside going both directions, with the Marlins getting their ability starter. Maybe Paxton could be enough; most likely the Marlins are particularly high on him, I dont know. So that as noted before, you could sweeten a bundle with a couple of other things. But if this trade happens, its likely to be about the pitcher going back, probably. And that pitcher is going to be both frustrating and promising. A great deal like Marcell Ozuna.